Analytics
Yes is at 1.3%, down 7.2 points from 8.5% when the market opened on 9 Jan 2026.
Across the 264 daily closes on record from 9 Jan 2026 to 24 Oct 2026 (26 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 9.5% on 13 Jan 2026 and the lowest 1.1% on 7 Jul 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 1.3%; a month before, 1.6%.
$125.3K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $56.71K, with a 0.4% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is Rufr with 3.9K shares; the largest No position is Jan777 with 2.1K. Ten wallets hold 49.8% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 69 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 24, 9:56 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 264 points, 9 Jan 2026 – 24 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 Jan 2026 | 8.5% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 1.3% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Rufr | Yes | 3.94K |
| RonaldFrank | Yes | 2.21K |
| Jan777 | No | 2.13K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met: 1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO. 2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty. 3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity. NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/nato-dissolves-before-2027
| 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 |
| No |
| 2.12K |
| Krass | No | 1.97K |
| CarVerifiedVerified Polymarket profile | No | 1.61K |
| Imbafer | No | 1.5K |
| maxtrant | Yes | 1.24K |
| bifurcatio | No | 1.06K |
| gaetanr | Yes | 1.05K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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