Analytics
Resolved No on 1 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 40% on 31 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 20 daily closes on record from 31 Mar 2026 to 1 May 2026 (12 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 40% on 31 Mar 2026 and the lowest 0.4% on 1 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 24 points down, to 16% on 1 Apr 2026. $235.71K traded over the market's life.
105 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 21, 6:19 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 20 points, 31 Mar 2026 – 1 May 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 31 Mar 2026 | 40.0% |
| 1 May 2026 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| brucewayne1000 | Yes | 10.98K |
| 6482f | Yes | 3.47K |
| troim | Yes | 2K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Naim Qassem ceases to be Hezbollah’s secretary-general for any length of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Naim Qassem will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Hezbollah’s secretary-general within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/naim-qassem-out-as-hezbollahs-secretary-general-by-december-31
| Po1yBot-QGDNvCSJ8Z | Yes | 1.93K |
| Shmuela | Yes | 1.17K |
| Adored-Borrowing | Yes | 1.11K |
| Broken-Cashew | Yes | 1.02K |
| Tiny-Military | Yes | 729.07 |
| TheCornflakemerchant | Yes | 673.37 |
| 77895 | Yes | 657.51 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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