Analytics
Resolved No on 1 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 6% on 12 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 33 daily closes on record from 12 Mar 2026 to 1 May 2026 (18 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 16% on 16 Mar 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 12 points up, to 16% on 16 Mar 2026. $309.13K traded over the market's life.
111 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 2, 1:13 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 33 points, 12 Mar 2026 – 1 May 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Mar 2026 | 6.0% |
| 1 May 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Foolhardy-Tunnel | Yes | 35.49K |
| Cobalt Kestrel D3BD | Yes | 2.85K |
| jjwcs | Yes | 2.17K |
| Zykoer | No | 2.13K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes". If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/mojtaba-khamenei-leaves-iran-by
| mt1980 | Yes | 1.68K |
| OMRYNIDAM | Yes | 1.43K |
| Lukenco | Yes | 1.28K |
| Glistening-Vision | Yes | 1.24K |
| FredericBastiat | Yes | 1.14K |
| RememberAmalek | Yes | 1K |
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