Yes is at 40.5%, down 12 points from 52.5% when the market opened on 8 Oct 2026.
Across the 20 daily closes on record from 8 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 70.5% on 11 Oct 2026 and the lowest 40.5% on 20 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 50%. Its largest one-day move was 16 points down, to 40.5% on 20 Oct 2026.
It is one of 2 markets under “Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...?”.
$3.44K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $208.4K since listing. The order book holds $30.97K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $26.41K bought Yes and $20.77K bought No; the largest was a $7.8K sell of Yes at 55.0¢.
The largest Yes position is theta-thunberg with 2.5K shares; the largest No position is willsom with 4.8K. Ten wallets hold 75.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 30 Nov 2026, 32 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 11:57 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 20 points, 8 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 30%–80%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Oct 2026 | 52.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 40.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| willsom | No | 4.82K |
| eCash | No | 3.35K |
| theta-thunberg | Yes | 2.46K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the East-West oil pipeline is targeted by a qualifying military action between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Riyadh Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” The East-West oil pipeline refers to Saudi Arabia’s East-West crude oil pipeline (also known as Petroline), which carries crude oil from Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, including its pumping stations. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike that impacts the East-West oil pipeline. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on the East-West oil pipeline do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact the East-West oil pipeline if it directly impacts the pipeline or any of its pumping stations. The occurrence and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Riyadh Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Saudi Arabia and a consensus of credible reporting.
| iHaveBeenPwned |
| Yes |
| 2.01K |
| cambridgeisaac | Yes | 1.48K |
| Indigo Lynx 22A3 | Yes | 837.9 |
| meagainsttheworld | Yes | 682.29 |
| PavtheGreat | Yes | 600 |
| headsh0t | Yes | 575 |
| MrMelonHead | No | 517.24 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/military-action-against-saudi-oil-pipeline-east-west-byptptpt
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