Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.1%. Yes opened at 10% on 27 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 24 daily closes on record from 27 Feb 2026 to 29 Mar 2026 (7 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 23% on 28 Feb 2026 and the lowest 0.9% on 29 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 13 points up, to 23% on 28 Feb 2026. $421.26K traded over the market's life.
161 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 21, 6:19 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 24 points, 27 Feb 2026 – 29 Mar 2026, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Feb 2026 | 10.0% |
| 29 Mar 2026 | 0.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Leon8899 | Yes | 9.03K |
| Spectacular-Paw | Yes | 5.45K |
| YukonCornelius | Yes | 3.45K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Cuba’s current leader, Miguel Díaz-Canel, is removed from power for any length of time by the listed date, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, Díaz-Canel will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise ceases to hold (or is publicly reported to be unable to perform the duties of) the office of First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba, which is widely regarded as Cuba’s top political post, within this market’s timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/miguel-daz-canel-out-as-leader-of-cuba-by-june-30
| ruizkinio | Yes | 3.07K |
| Lanky-Councilor | Yes | 2.4K |
| oddsare | Yes | 2.17K |
| steamrolling | Yes | 2K |
| Therealtitan | Yes | 2K |
| fire7777 | Yes | 1.77K |
| Upset-Pearl | Yes | 1.67K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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