Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 22.5% on 11 Jul 2025. Before it settled, across the 176 daily closes on record from 11 Jul 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 33.5% on 24 Oct 2025 and the lowest 0.3% on 30 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 17 points up, to 33.5% on 24 Oct 2025. $35.19K traded over the market's life.
58 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 13, 6:11 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 176 points, 11 Jul 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 Jul 2025 | 22.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Growing-Man | Yes | 1.2K |
| belov98 | Yes | 972.26 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 494 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta's Llama 5 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Llama 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling free waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as being accessible to the general public. Llama 5 refers to a product explicitly named Llama 5. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/meta-release-llama-5-in-2025
| Yes |
| 332 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 269 |
| lissartter | Yes | 179.5 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 165.99 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 157 |
| mikamu | Yes | 139.27 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 123 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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