Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Aug 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 16.5% on 14 May 2025. Before it settled, the high was 37% on 20 May 2025 and the low 0.3% on 31 Jul 2025. Its largest one-day move was 33 points down, to 3.5% on 21 May 2025. $29.2K traded over the market's life.
37 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 2, 8:52 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 80 points · 14 May 2025 – 1 Aug 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 May 2025 | 16.5% |
| 1 Aug 2025 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| BeN | Yes | 866.36 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 282.77 |
| lissartter | Yes | 240 |
| hajar.TheChosen | Yes | 88.42 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if either Erik Menendez or Lyle Menendez is released from custody by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If either brother is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If either brother is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting either brother to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/menendez-brother-be-released-from-custody-before-august
| Blablabla123321 | Yes | 57.27 |
| Crimson Falcon C79A | Yes | 50.94 |
| DannyBjr | Yes | 50 |
| Matikol22 | Yes | 31.25 |
| MaddoxWoods | Yes | 27.62 |
| chucky9394 | Yes | 25 |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
