Analytics
Resolved Yes on 30 Jul 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 94%. Yes opened at 67% on 20 Feb 2025. Before it settled, across the 161 daily closes on record from 20 Feb 2025 to 30 Jul 2025, the highest close was 94% on 30 Jul 2025 and the lowest 28.5% on 15 Jul 2025. Its largest one-day move was 60 points up, to 94% on 30 Jul 2025. $414.68K traded over the market's life.
90 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 31, 8:44 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 161 points, 20 Feb 2025 – 30 Jul 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 Feb 2025 | 67.0% |
| 30 Jul 2025 | 94.0% |
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater. This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on earth between February 18 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake hazards program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until March 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/megaquake-in-2025
| Yes |
| 100.47 |
| Monotone | Yes | 57.69 |
| Newshound | No | 49.99 |
| Amok | No | 40 |
| anonymous978245 | No | 38.46 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | No | 33 |
| valencia21 | No | 30.77 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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