Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026?

weatherResolved

Yes, settled Oct 10, 2026 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$1.3K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Oct 10, 2026 UTC

Topic roomOutbreaks and pandemics

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 10 Oct 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 100%. Yes opened at 95.5% on 1 Oct 2026. Before it settled, across the 10 daily closes on record from 1 Oct 2026 to 10 Oct 2026, the highest close was 100% on 10 Oct 2026 and the lowest 95.5% on 1 Oct 2026. $1.29K traded over the market's life.

8 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Oct 10, 2:06 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 10 points, 1 Oct 2026 – 10 Oct 2026, chart shows 90%–100%

Same event

Measles cases in U.S. by October 31?

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
GuyFromTinder	No	29.6
29EDa18df836aD93a8c285F97873bBE26118A8da.	No	20
Pitosyflautas	No	20

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.