Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 2.9% on 30 Apr 2025. Before it settled, across the 248 daily closes on record from 30 Apr 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 49.8% on 28 Oct 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 2 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 47 points up, to 49.8% on 28 Oct 2025. $75.34K traded over the market's life.
46 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:33 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 248 points, 30 Apr 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Apr 2025 | 2.9% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| ravenxx1205 | Yes | 1K |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 269.6 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 265.7 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mark Carney announces he is resigning as head of the Liberal Party of Canada or otherwise ceases to be head of the Liberal Party of Canada for any length of time between April 28, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement of Mark Carney's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Mark Carney or the Liberal Party of Canada, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/mark-carney-out-as-leader-of-liberals-in-2025
| Crimson Falcon C79A | Yes | 243.48 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 146 |
| Liamyxy | Yes | 124 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | Yes | 106 |
| Beardedf | Yes | 100 |
| kamarat | Yes | 100 |
| bigbrainUser | Yes | 99.99 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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