
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 27% on 11 Apr 2025. Before it settled, across the 267 daily closes on record from 11 Apr 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 31% on 26 May 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 18 points up, to 31% on 26 May 2025. $38.65K traded over the market's life.
52 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 4:29 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 267 points, 11 Apr 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 Apr 2025 | 27.0% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 363 |
| contaaposta | Yes | 280 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 272 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. bank with total assets exceeding $50 billion as of December 31, 2024 (see:https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/), is bailed out by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns. -Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility -Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank -A U.S. Treasury capital injection -A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs. Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify. If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/major-us-bank-bailout-in-2025
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 221 |
| FrankyFourFingers | Yes | 200.01 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 146 |
| lissartter | Yes | 109.2 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | Yes | 106 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 91 |
| Mindless-Recipient | Yes | 90.5 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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