
Yes is at 6.5%, down 47 points from 53.5% when the market opened on 13 Nov 2025.
The high was 55% on 5 Feb 2026 and the low 5% on 23 Sep 2026. A week ago Yes was at 5%; a month ago, 6.5%. Its largest one-day move was 32 points down, to 21.5% on 14 Nov 2025.
$4.27K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $429.04, with a 3.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 169 trades, $181.02 bought Yes and $1.83K bought No.
The largest Yes position is Starryplough with 876 shares; the largest No position is 0xB16B00B5 with 1.1K. Ten wallets hold 79.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 81 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 12, 11:43 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 308 points · 13 Nov 2025 – 12 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Nov 2025 | 53.5% |
| 12 Oct 2026 | 6.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| 0xB16B00B5 | No | 1.09K |
| Starryplough | Yes | 875.8 |
| BeefDerky | Yes | 249.04 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. bank with total assets exceeding $50 billion as of November 11, 2025 (see:https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/), is bailed out by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns. -Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility -Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank -A U.S. Treasury capital injection -A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs. Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify. If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/major-us-bank-bailout-before-2027
| Emerald Scout 8445 |
| No |
| 206.01 |
| Trilannon | Yes | 103.66 |
| Biver52 | Yes | 100 |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | Yes | 92.5 |
| AJSV | Yes | 87.52 |
| AusMaximus | Yes | 76.19 |
| brittany09 | No | 50.15 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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