Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Apr 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 19.5% on 13 Dec 2024. Before it settled, across the 110 daily closes on record from 13 Dec 2024 to 1 Apr 2025, the highest close was 19.5% on 13 Dec 2024 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Apr 2025. Its largest one-day move was 5 points up, to 19.5% on 20 Dec 2024. $57.41K traded over the market's life.
224 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 2, 7:26 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 110 points, 13 Dec 2024 – 1 Apr 2025, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Dec 2024 | 19.5% |
| 1 Apr 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| CryptoCrazy333 | Yes | 999.97 |
| Knowing-Desert | Yes | 526.84 |
| Rmd | Yes | 399.87 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva announces his resignation or otherwise ceases to be President of Brazil for any length of time between December 10, 2024, and March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Lula ceases to be President of Brazil for any length of time within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes". This market will not resolve to "No" until its timeframe expires and Lula has remained President of Brazil for the entire duration without interruption. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/lula-out-before-february
Start here: the 25 October runoff, the polls, the Polymarket odds and the results, in one guide.
Why a candidate's poll share and market price measure different things, and how to read them side by side.
When the count begins on 25 October, and where the electoral court publishes the official results.
| Yes |
| 322.25 |
| TDKahovka | Yes | 278.23 |
| 0tt0 | Yes | 267.32 |
| dearchang3l | Yes | 182 |
| zappatta | Yes | 176.92 |
| Malgoncalves | No | 116.74 |
| obiwanxu | Yes | 94.53 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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