Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 19.5% on 26 Feb 2025. Before it settled, across the 311 daily closes on record from 26 Feb 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 57.5% on 14 Jun 2025 and the lowest 0.3% on 1 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 25 points up, to 36.8% on 13 Jun 2025. $22.57K traded over the market's life.
60 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:31 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 311 points, 26 Feb 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 Feb 2025 | 19.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Kickstand7 | Yes | 655 |
| Productive-Ephemeris | Yes | 646.94 |
| Ortsaa | Yes | 347.62 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a judge declares a mistrial in either of Luigi Mangione's ongoing federal or state cases by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A mistrial only needs to be declared in one of Mangione's ongoing cases for this market to resolve to "Yes". If all ongoing cases as of February 25, 2025 resolve without a mistrial being declared, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be information from the ruling courts in this case, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/luigi-mangione-mistrial
New to prediction markets?
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 286 |
| FrankyFourFingers | Yes | 200.02 |
| rkmpa | Yes | 167.36 |
| 0xRocket666 | Yes | 150 |
| Indolent-Bead | Yes | 133.33 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 90 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | Yes | 75 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
