Analytics
Yes is at 10%, down 19 points from 29.5% when the market opened on 10 Jul 2026.
Across the 111 daily closes on record from 10 Jul 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 29.5% on 10 Jul 2026 and the lowest 8% on 16 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 9.5%; a month before, 10%. Its largest one-day move was 9 points down, to 16% on 12 Jul 2026.
$9.09 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $3.35K since listing. The order book holds $10.55K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 75 trades, $238.51 bought Yes and $891.44 bought No.
The largest Yes position is vinii with 519 shares; the largest No position is PascalPro with 929. Ten wallets hold 95.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 18 Apr 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 3:51 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 111 points, 10 Jul 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Jul 2026 | 29.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 10.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| PascalPro | No | 929.18 |
| vinii | Yes | 519.36 |
| FrozenParasite | No | 169.98 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Marine Le Pen wears a court-ordered or legally imposed electronic monitoring device at any time between market creation and April 17, 2027, at 11:59 PM Paris time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve solely based on whether Marine Le Pen actually wears a court-ordered or legally imposed electronic monitoring device during the specified time frame, regardless of any pending or future appeal, outstanding sentence, change to her candidacy or eligibility status, or other legal proceeding or formality. Fitness monitoring devices, smartwatches, or other similar consumer-grade wearable technology will not qualify. A brief fitting, test, demonstration, or other non-compulsory use of an electronic monitoring device will not qualify unless Le Pen wears the device as part of an active electronic monitoring measure imposed by a court or other competent legal authority. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/le-pen-ankle-monitor-before-french-presidential-election-20260708202050689
| thecaricature |
| Yes |
| 169.28 |
| zgmzgm | Yes | 115.08 |
| Apt-Exhibit | Yes | 100 |
| TheMasterMind | No | 100 |
| vivelepen | Yes | 92.83 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 90.03 |
| maddersky | Yes | 50 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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