Analytics
Resolved No on 1 May 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 50% on 12 Apr 2025. Before it settled, across the 20 daily closes on record from 12 Apr 2025 to 1 May 2025, the highest close was 50% on 12 Apr 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 May 2025. Its largest one-day move was 41 points down, to 6.4% on 15 Apr 2025. $104.1K traded over the market's life.
22 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 2, 8:20 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 20 points, 12 Apr 2025 – 1 May 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Apr 2025 | 50.0% |
| 1 May 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia is released from custody by April 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Garcia is released from custody by the resolution date but remains under house arrest, the market will immediately resolve to "Yes". If Garcia is released on bond, this will count as being released from custody and the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Garcia to another location of custody will NOT suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from relevant government bodies, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/kilmar-abrego-garcia-released-from-custody-in-april
| lahmon | Yes | 113.5 |
| rndmwlkr | Yes | 83.69 |
| anonlowden | Yes | 83.4 |
| zlschwar | Yes | 74.26 |
| na9er | Yes | 30 |
| Brodes99 | Yes | 20.41 |
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