Katana FDV above $300M one day after launch?

Resolved

No, settled Mar 19, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Resolved

Settled

Mar 19, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 19 Mar 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 96.9%. Yes opened at 23% on 28 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 18 daily closes on record from 28 Feb 2026 to 18 Mar 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 23% on 28 Feb 2026 and the lowest 2.6% on 8 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 8 points down, to 14.5% on 3 Mar 2026.

30 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Mar 20, 6:29 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 18 points, 28 Feb 2026 – 18 Mar 2026, chart shows 0%–30%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
28 Feb 2026	23.0%
18 Mar 2026	3.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
oak	Yes	6.31K
acal	Yes	5.5K
AlphaTipsChannel	Yes	5K
TheMUUmUU	Yes	4.36K

10 of 30 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Katana's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Katana (https://x.com/katana) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".