Analytics
Yes is at 20%, down 30 points from 50% when the market opened on 31 Mar 2026.
Across the 203 daily closes on record from 31 Mar 2026 to 24 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 83.5% on 26 Apr 2026 and the lowest 16.5% on 3 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 18.5%; a month before, 20%. Its largest one-day move was 24 points up, to 66.5% on 3 Apr 2026.
It is one of 2 markets under “Kash Patel out by...?”.
$2.27K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $435.57K since listing. The order book holds $13.44K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is fElon with 19.9K shares; the largest No position is yen4u with 14.9K. Ten wallets hold 55.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 69 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 24, 11:06 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 203 points, 31 Mar 2026 – 24 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 31 Mar 2026 | 50.0% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 19.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| fElon | Yes | 19.87K |
| DirkDiggler67 | Yes | 16.79K |
| yen4u | No | 14.94K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kash Patel ceases to be the Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation for any period of by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Patel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/kash-patel-out-by
| Serega-pro |
| No |
| 12.95K |
| cikcikcik | No | 8.43K |
| scottilicious | Yes | 8.11K |
| Pondermint | Yes | 5.4K |
| ethBELIVER | No | 4.94K |
| aenews2 | Yes | 4.35K |
| jidho | No | 3.81K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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