Analytics
Yes is at 17%, down 33 points from 50% when the market opened on 12 Aug 2026.
Across the 75 daily closes on record from 12 Aug 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 74% on 14 Sep 2026 and the lowest 17% on 27 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 19.5%; a month before, 64.5%. Its largest one-day move was 28 points down, to 31% on 4 Oct 2026.
24.5+ passing TDs ranks third of the 5 outcomes in “Pro Football: Justin Herbert 2026-27 Regular Season Passing Touchdowns”. 18.5+ passing TDs leads at 51.5%; 21.5+ passing TDs is at 21%.
$55 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $3.44K since listing. The order book holds $115.69, with a 8.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 122 trades, $703.84 bought Yes and $618.23 bought No.
The largest Yes position is Mr.Kirk with 758 shares; the largest No position is KindaBoiled with 434. Ten wallets hold 92% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 27 Jan 2027, 91 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 11:52 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 75 points, 12 Aug 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Aug 2026 | 50.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 17.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Mr.Kirk | Yes | 757.59 |
| KindaBoiled | No | 434.37 |
| extractive-manatee | No | 300 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the number of passing touchdowns Justin Herbert records during the 2026-27 NFL regular season equals or exceeds 24.5. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Justin Herbert does not play in the 2026-27 NFL regular season for any reason, this market will resolve to "No". If the 2026-27 NFL regular season is shortened, truncated, or ends early for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available official data for completed games. If the 2026-27 NFL regular season is cancelled, postponed after January 26, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or it cannot be determined how many passing touchdowns Justin Herbert recorded within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "50-50". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/justin-herbert-passing-touchdowns-2026-27
| gmfrom |
| No |
| 275 |
| JUSTINHERBERTMVP | Yes | 224 |
| ndb1 | No | 128.95 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 103.42 |
| crckr | Yes | 92.58 |
| IUSEBOT | No | 84.95 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | Yes | 77.4 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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