Analytics
Yes is at 5.7%, down 42 points from 48% when the market opened on 21 Jan 2026.
Across the 266 daily closes on record from 21 Jan 2026 to 25 Oct 2026 (13 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 48% on 21 Jan 2026 and the lowest 4% on 3 Jul 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 8.6%; a month before, 8.5%. Its largest one-day move was 27 points down, to 21% on 22 Jan 2026.
$53.55 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $9.95K since listing. The order book holds $409.06, with a 4.7% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 178 trades, $217.4 bought Yes and $3.87K bought No; the largest was a $1.17K buy of No at 83.0¢.
The largest Yes position is bobbet with 260 shares; the largest No position is ArbitrageTaker with 521. Ten wallets hold 82.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 68 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 25, 12:36 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 266 points, 21 Jan 2026 – 25 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 21 Jan 2026 | 48.0% |
| 25 Oct 2026 | 5.7% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| ArbitrageTaker | No | 521.06 |
| End123 | No | 411.28 |
| bobbet | Yes | 260 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Justin Bieber and/or Hailey Bieber announce their intention to legally separate or divorce between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET of their intention to separate or divorce will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the separation or divorce later actually occurs, or whether the actual separation or divorce occurs outside of the timeframe of this market. The resolution source will be statements from Justin Bieber, Hailey Bieber, and/or their representatives, however a definitive consensus of credible media reporting may be considered.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/justin-hailey-bieber-split-in-2026
| AJSV |
| Yes |
| 234.02 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 194 |
| ultraplayz | No | 99.77 |
| MrMako | Yes | 84.14 |
| ma99 | Yes | 82.29 |
| RobertHughes1829 | Yes | 62.72 |
| Jaykay0071 | No | 51.11 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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