Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Nov 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 36% on 27 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 36 daily closes on record from 27 Sep 2025 to 1 Nov 2025, the highest close was 36% on 27 Sep 2025 and the lowest 0.3% on 31 Oct 2025. Its largest one-day move was 24 points down, to 12.5% on 28 Sep 2025. $14.58K traded over the market's life.
15 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 2, 8:32 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 36 points, 27 Sep 2025 – 1 Nov 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Sep 2025 | 36.0% |
| 1 Nov 2025 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 4.3K |
| Crimson Falcon C79A | Yes | 508.54 |
| ketib2 | Yes | 500 |
| lissartter | Yes | 454.23 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if John O. Brennan is arrested between September 26 and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/john-brennan-arrested-by-october-31
| Bright Signal 14DE | Yes | 163.95 |
| Clearbladez | Yes | 100 |
| CarmineJT | Yes | 100 |
| SnowTexican | Yes | 83.33 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 24 |
| Molon1776Labe | Yes | 16.67 |
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