Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 57.5% on 25 Jul 2025. Before it settled, across the 162 daily closes on record from 25 Jul 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 57.5% on 25 Jul 2025 and the lowest 0.3% on 1 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 15 points up, to 53% on 14 Aug 2025. $1.08M traded over the market's life.
272 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 6, 8:35 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 162 points, 25 Jul 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Jul 2025 | 57.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Whaleeeee | Yes | 16.7K |
| EternalNow888 | Yes | 12.88K |
| dashagroyper | Yes | 8.6K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if either Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate, or Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israeli soil or any official Israeli embassy or consulate, by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli or Iranian military forces that impact the other party’s ground territory or any official embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, or an Israeli air base is hit by an Iranian drone, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the relevant government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on the opposing party’s territory or cause damage.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-broken-by
| Pleasant-Eyebrows | Yes | 6.26K |
| Scrawny-Spat | Yes | 6.21K |
| grapygroyp | Yes | 5.63K |
| shadowboy | Yes | 5.58K |
| Shocking-Catalysis | Yes | 3.99K |
| Solapump | Yes | 3.67K |
| Generator | Yes | 3.12K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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