Analytics
Resolved No on 23 Aug 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 83.4%. Yes opened at 29.5% on 19 Aug 2025. Before it settled, across the 5 daily closes on record from 19 Aug 2025 to 23 Aug 2025, the highest close was 29.5% on 19 Aug 2025 and the lowest 6% on 22 Aug 2025. Its largest one-day move was 18 points down, to 11.5% on 20 Aug 2025. $17.97K traded over the market's life.
11 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 24, 8:45 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 5 points, 19 Aug 2025 – 23 Aug 2025, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 Aug 2025 | 29.5% |
| 23 Aug 2025 | 16.7% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 1.78K |
| Illuminatiboi | Yes | 670.92 |
| Crimson Falcon C79A | Yes | 248 |
| macrcopolo | Yes | 175.05 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemen soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate between August 18 and August 22, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-strikes-yemen-by-august-22
| maikaichner | Yes | 63.53 |
| lissartter | Yes | 35.76 |
| Serene-Error | Yes | 33.33 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | Yes | 11 |
| maxwerywell | No | 0.03 |
| Lenni08 | No | 0.02 |
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