Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 61.5% on 7 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 152 daily closes on record from 7 Jan 2026 to 1 Jul 2026 (24 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 91.5% on 29 Mar 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 25 points up, to 91.5% on 29 Mar 2026. $1.05M traded over the market's life.
476 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 2, 2:30 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 152 points, 7 Jan 2026 – 1 Jul 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 Jan 2026 | 61.5% |
| 1 Jul 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Grounded-Customer | Yes | 9.9K |
| yuhyuhyuhy352352 | Yes | 9.77K |
| Bleak-Jealousy | Yes | 6.98K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM Israeli local time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-strike-on-yemen-by-593
| tutrucks | Yes | 6.32K |
| toutiege | Yes | 6.2K |
| rounders2026 | Yes | 6.01K |
| Liquid-Timetable | Yes | 5.59K |
| Striped-Pressroom | Yes | 3.27K |
| BlindAndDeaf | Yes | 3.12K |
| scottilicious | Yes | 2.92K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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