Israel strike on Tehran before July?

Resolved

Yes, settled Jun 13, 2025 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$68.0K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Jun 13, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 13 Jun 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 56%. Yes opened at 26% on 12 Jun 2025. Before it settled, across the 2 daily closes on record from 12 Jun 2025 to 13 Jun 2025, the highest close was 56% on 13 Jun 2025 and the lowest 26% on 12 Jun 2025. Its largest one-day move was 30 points up, to 56% on 13 Jun 2025. $67.98K traded over the market's life.

11 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jun 14, 8:24 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 12 Jun 2025 – 13 Jun 2025

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
12 Jun 2025	26.0%
13 Jun 2025	56.0%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Dideldums	No	9.21K
qwertzu	No	100
JackTorrance	No	69.44
Arcane0	No	6.67

10 of 11 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the Central District of Tehran County, or any target within it, between June 11 and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market Tehran is inclusive of the entirety of the Central District of Tehran County (see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_District_(Tehran_County)). Strikes on other districts within Tehran County will not qualify. A qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Tehran. Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land in Tehran, or cause damage. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and video evidence. If there is ambiguity over whether a strike occurred, or whether the drone/missile was intercepted, this market will resolve based on whatever is most likely according to a consensus of credible reporting and video evidence.