Analytics
Trading ended on 28 Oct 2026 with Yes at 96%; Polymarket has not settled it yet.
Across the 4 daily closes on record from 28 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026, the highest close was 96% on 30 Oct 2026 and the lowest 16.5% on 28 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 46 points up, to 94.5% on 30 Oct 2026.
Bibi 5-6 seats is the favourite of the 9 outcomes in “Israel Election: Bloc Seat Margin of Victory”, ahead of Opposition 7+ seats at 0.9%.
$1.71K has traded since listing.
The largest Yes position is Bitao with 294 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 904. Ten wallets hold 86.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Polymarket record as of Oct 30, 6:01 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 4 points, 28 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Oct 2026 | 16.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 96.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 904.24 |
| Bitao | Yes | 294.21 |
| aiyosi | Yes | 227.26 |
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin, in seats, between the combined number of seats won in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election by the Netanyahu bloc (“Bibi”) and by the opposition bloc (“Opposition”). The Netanyahu bloc consists of Likud, Otzma Yehudit, RZP-Zehut, Amcha Yisrael, United Torah Judaism, and Shas. The opposition bloc consists of The Democrats, Yashar, Together, and Yisrael Beiteinu. Seats won by any party not named above will not count toward either bloc. The margin is defined as the absolute difference between the two blocs’ combined seat totals. This market will resolve to the bracket for the bloc that wins more combined seats that contains this margin. If both blocs win the same combined number of seats, this market will resolve to “Tie”. If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named parties in the Israeli Knesset. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-election-bloc-seat-margin-of-victory-20261021154359891
| balthazar |
| Yes |
| 190.19 |
| thanksforplayin | No | 150.5 |
| Shoddy-Community | Yes | 142.33 |
| Pale-Foodstuffs | Yes | 99.99 |
| xtxpleasecallme | No | 86.08 |
| HolyMoses7VerifiedVerified Polymarket profile | Yes | 82.35 |
| Appropriate-Hockey-Deduce | Yes | 68.18 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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