Analytics
Resolved Yes on 22 Jan 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 97%. Yes opened at 82.5% on 6 Jan 2025. Before it settled, the high was 98.8% on 9 Jan 2025 and the low 82.5% on 6 Jan 2025. Its largest one-day move was 9.5 points up, to 98.5% on 8 Jan 2025. $88.77K traded over the market's life.
8 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 23, 4:34 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 17 points, 6 Jan 2025 – 22 Jan 2025, chart shows 75%–100%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Jan 2025 | 82.5% |
| 22 Jan 2025 | 97.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Mitfliedsname12 | No | 3.71K |
| BabyYoda12 | No | 2K |
| PolyDump | No | 400 |
| Hanhadebull | No | 20 |
| Spectating | No | 0.1 |
| devilmaycry12345 | Yes | 0.05 |
| Scord | Yes | 0.02 |
| bhop | Yes | 0.02 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
On January 3, Shawn Ryan posted an alleged manifesto sent by the Cybertruck perp (see: https://x.com/ShawnRyan762/status/1875278600284635341). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the FBI confirms that the manifesto was written by Matthew Livelsberger. This market will resolve to "No" if the FBI confirms that the manifesto was not written by Matthew Livelsberger. This market will resolve once there have been definitive statements from the FBI confirming whether the manifesto was written by Matthew Livelsberger. If there has been no definitive statement by January 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on what the FBI believe was most likely based on official statements.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/is-the-cybertruck-manifesto-real
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