Analytics
Resolved No on 3 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.9%. Yes opened at 71% on 1 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 28 daily closes on record from 1 Mar 2026 to 29 Mar 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 71% on 1 Mar 2026 and the lowest 1.1% on 29 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 21 points down, to 41% on 3 Mar 2026. $5.16M traded over the market's life.
566 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 17, 10:01 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 28 points, 1 Mar 2026 – 29 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Mar 2026 | 71.0% |
| 29 Mar 2026 | 1.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| wan123 | Yes | 103.04K |
| Skinny-Class | Yes | 75.46K |
| Broken-Sightseeing | Yes | 11.68K |
| Emerald Quasar A8DA | Yes | 6.9K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed. A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions. Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count. Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/iran-x-israelus-conflict-ends-by
| Unwilling-Berry | Yes | 6.46K |
| PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN | Yes | 5.47K |
| Trustworthy-Participant | Yes | 5.29K |
| Uncomfortable-Gown | Yes | 5.28K |
| Jerzy | Yes | 5K |
| blackabt123 | Yes | 4.59K |
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