Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.3%. Yes opened at 25% on 13 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 20 daily closes on record from 13 Jan 2026 to 1 Feb 2026, the highest close was 53.5% on 15 Jan 2026 and the lowest 0.8% on 1 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 33 points down, to 21% on 16 Jan 2026. $310.86K traded over the market's life.
112 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 2, 4:23 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 20 points, 13 Jan 2026 – 1 Feb 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Jan 2026 | 25.0% |
| 1 Feb 2026 | 0.8% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| UncleAsh | Yes | 2.09K |
| Yellowish-Due | Yes | 2.01K |
| Dalloz75116 | Yes | 1.2K |
| Left-Beggar | Yes | 800.98 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a military strike against the U.S. military, inclusive of all U.S. military ships, planes, bases and other infrastructure, between market creation and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Iranian missile, drone, or other strikes which are shot down or miss their targets will not be considered for this market. Strikes on U.S. military unmanned aerial vehicles/projectiles and U.S. commercial/civilian ships will NOT count toward a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks on the U.S. military by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is official statements from the U.S. and Iranian governments, however a consensus of credible may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/iran-strike-on-us-military-by-january-31
| Whole-Affair | Yes | 700 |
| Zraadir | Yes | 625 |
| jean852 | Yes | 605.89 |
| Dr.psycho31 | Yes | 558.54 |
| policyzero | Yes | 480 |
| trentk | Yes | 413.27 |
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