Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 29.5% on 28 May 2026. Before it settled, across the 35 daily closes on record from 28 May 2026 to 1 Jul 2026, the highest close was 32.5% on 29 May 2026 and the lowest 0.5% on 1 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 14 points down, to 12% on 18 Jun 2026. $1.5M traded over the market's life.
329 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 2, 6:11 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 35 points, 28 May 2026 – 1 Jul 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 May 2026 | 29.5% |
| 1 Jul 2026 | 0.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Ferwhere | Yes | 256.09K |
| 881112 | Yes | 119.83K |
| MankPredict | Yes | 9.26K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Iran allowing unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz refers to a public agreement by Iran that commercial vessels may transit the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian authorization/permission, payment of fees to Iran, or other Iran-imposed restrictions. A public agreement that all restrictions imposed on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz by Iran as part of the US-Iran conflict which began on February 28, 2026, will be definitively lifted, without replacement by new restrictions, will qualify. A qualifying agreement must clearly indicate that Iran will not impose restrictions on commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz. General statements about the strait being “open”, de-escalation, security, increased transit in the Strait, or stability in the region, which do not clearly indicate that Iran will allow unrestricted commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz, will not qualify. An official pledge by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/iran-agrees-to-unrestricted-shipping-through-hormuz-by-june-30
| Yes |
| 5.67K |
| Spirit-LT | Yes | 5.61K |
| toutiege | Yes | 5.31K |
| Miracle007 | Yes | 4.44K |
| Donju777 | Yes | 3.67K |
| Overland | Yes | 3.34K |
| NagashBeatz | Yes | 3K |
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