Analytics
Resolved No on 9 Aug 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 9% on 5 Aug 2025. Before it settled, across the 5 daily closes on record from 5 Aug 2025 to 9 Aug 2025, the highest close was 9% on 5 Aug 2025 and the lowest 0.2% on 9 Aug 2025. Its largest one-day move was 5.3 points down, to 1% on 7 Aug 2025. $28.39K traded over the market's life.
12 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 10, 8:59 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 5 points, 5 Aug 2025 – 9 Aug 2025, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2025 | 9.0% |
| 9 Aug 2025 | 0.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| orchestrator | Yes | 534.32 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 461 |
| jmarc369 | Yes | 128.19 |
| S888 | Yes | 83.13 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of India and Pakistan between August 4, 4:00 PM ET and August 8, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Indian and Pakistani military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/india-x-pakistan-military-clash-by-friday-283
| Psychotic | Yes | 51.69 |
| qwertzu | Yes | 20 |
| suks | Yes | 15.38 |
| Front-Bill | Yes | 14.29 |
| Crimson Falcon C79A | Yes | 0.84 |
| xiaojiren | No | 0.02 |
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