Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Aug 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.4%. Yes opened at 45% on 23 May 2025. Before it settled, across the 71 daily closes on record from 23 May 2025 to 1 Aug 2025, the highest close was 45% on 23 May 2025 and the lowest 0.4% on 30 Jul 2025. Its largest one-day move was 25 points down, to 20% on 24 May 2025. $30.87K traded over the market's life.
52 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 2, 8:54 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 71 points, 23 May 2025 – 1 Aug 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 May 2025 | 45.0% |
| 1 Aug 2025 | 1.6% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| dsytfg | Yes | 1.71K |
| Half-Ephyra | Yes | 1.32K |
| bobono | Yes | 470.3 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if India initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Pakistani soil between May 22, and July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Indian military forces that impact Pakistani ground territory. Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Pakistani territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly along the line of control, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or sanctions, will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/india-strike-on-pakistan-before-august
| Yes |
| 307.63 |
| lissartter | Yes | 269.37 |
| tango00 | Yes | 250 |
| Aressss | Yes | 245 |
| FreeCityIndividual | Yes | 215.08 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 200 |
| blindtoblind | Yes | 200 |
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