Analytics
Resolved Yes on 7 May 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.9%. Yes opened at 6.5% on 3 May 2025. Before it settled, across the 5 daily closes on record from 3 May 2025 to 7 May 2025, the highest close was 99.9% on 7 May 2025 and the lowest 6.5% on 3 May 2025. Its largest one-day move was 91 points up, to 99.9% on 7 May 2025. $103.99K traded over the market's life.
9 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 8, 8:20 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 5 points, 3 May 2025 – 7 May 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 May 2025 | 6.5% |
| 7 May 2025 | 99.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| learnwithmoe | No | 1.77K |
| shitoia | No | 439.77 |
| Xversy | No | 333.33 |
| Trade | No | 100 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if India initiates an airstrike or missile strike on Pakistani soil, airspace, or maritime territory, or against any Pakistani embassies or consulates, between May 2 and May 9, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Indian military forces that impact Pakistani territory, airspace, or maritime assets. This includes, for example, an Indian airstrike on a site in Pakistan or an Indian missile landing on Pakistani territory. Actions such as artillery fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, sanctions, small arms fire, or purely diplomatic confrontations will not count toward resolution. The strike must be either officially acknowledged by the Indian government or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/india-military-strike-on-pakistan-by-next-friday
| BUFU-974 | No | 65.71 |
| JimmyR | No | 11.24 |
| after28 | No | 0.02 |
| jcharger | Yes | 0.01 |
| ACara | No | 0.01 |
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