Analytics
Resolved No on 22 Sep 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 50% on 11 Jun 2026. Before it settled, across the 103 daily closes on record from 11 Jun 2026 to 22 Sep 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 65% on 17 Aug 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 21 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 50 points down, to 0.5% on 31 Aug 2026. $285.62K traded over the market's life.
176 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:08 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 103 points, 11 Jun 2026 – 22 Sep 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 Jun 2026 | 50.0% |
| 22 Sep 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| guldmundur | Yes | 8.17K |
| Djakninn | Yes | 6.33K |
| Flaner | Yes | 5.29K |
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is a ballot referendum in which voters will be asked whether Iceland should restart membership negotiations with the European Union. This referendum is currently scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026. You can find more information about the referendum here: https://government.is/topics/foreign-affairs/iceland-in-europe/referendum/. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iceland passes this referendum. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the election is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to "no" if no qualifying referendum vote is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if such a referendum is scheduled to be held later than such date. The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the National Electoral Commission of Iceland. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/icelandic-european-union-membership-negotiations-referendum-passes-20260609135241589
| yesworld28 | Yes | 4.16K |
| GuailanKia | Yes | 4K |
| jackya | Yes | 3.05K |
| Odd-Deformation | Yes | 3K |
| nnimrodd | Yes | 2.44K |
| High-Level-Precedence | Yes | 2.27K |
| przemekkm | Yes | 1.1K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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