Analytics
Yes is at 22.5%, down 8.5 points from 31% when the market opened on 24 Oct 2026.
Across the 5 daily closes on record from 24 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 31% on 24 Oct 2026 and the lowest 18% on 30 Oct 2026.
It is one of 9 markets under “How many Tesla deliveries in Q4 2026?”.
$224 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $2.29K since listing. The order book holds $265.65, with a 7.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 76 trades, $186.21 bought Yes and $651.97 bought No.
The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 314 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 478.
Trading closes on 1 Mar 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 1:29 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 5 points, 24 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 15%–35%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Oct 2026 | 31.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 22.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 478.04 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 313.75 |
| 2B9S | Yes | 95 |
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q4 2026. If Tesla does not publish Q4 2026 delivery figures by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press; however, other official company sources or a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-tesla-deliveries-in-q4-2026
| braindance |
| Yes |
| 53.99 |
| GuyFromTinder | Yes | 36.24 |
| tradetosurvive1 | Yes | 30.01 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | No | 27.3 |
| Haradwaith | Yes | 20 |
| darkaurora | No | 20 |
| cigarettes | No | 20 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
