Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Oct 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 97.8%. Yes opened at 30% on 25 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 7 daily closes on record from 25 Sep 2025 to 1 Oct 2025, the highest close was 32.5% on 26 Sep 2025 and the lowest 2.3% on 1 Oct 2025. Its largest one-day move was 11 points down, to 12% on 28 Sep 2025. $23.68K traded over the market's life.
19 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 2, 8:35 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 7 points, 25 Sep 2025 – 1 Oct 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Sep 2025 | 30.0% |
| 1 Oct 2025 | 2.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Several-Olive | Yes | 1.65K |
| lissartter | Yes | 684.54 |
| Omria | Yes | 624.47 |
| cedargem | Yes | 247.08 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Houthis initiate a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory between September 24, 3:00 PM ET, and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Houthi forces that physically impact land under Israeli control. Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of September 24, 2025. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution—regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/houthi-strike-on-israel-by-495
| Excited-Interconnection | Yes | 98.95 |
| Krisi98 | Yes | 71.43 |
| 7jrjejeheh737374 | Yes | 60.25 |
| Ligga | Yes | 25.02 |
| Tommy135 | Yes | 25 |
| Limping-Motion | Yes | 24.18 |
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