
Yes is at 53%, up 25 points from 28% when the market opened on 2 Oct 2026.
Across the 27 daily closes on record from 2 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 59% on 26 Oct 2026 and the lowest 28% on 2 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 38.5%. Its largest one-day move was 19 points up, to 47% on 3 Oct 2026.
It is one of 16 markets under “Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...?”.
$536.01 traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $13.74, with a 82.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is AMAM13 with 42 shares; the largest No position is ChinaRed with 83.
Trading closes on 31 Oct 2026, tomorrow.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 12:03 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 27 points, 2 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | 28.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 53.0% |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Houthis take a qualifying military action against Saudi Arabia on the specified date, Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the Houthis, that directly impacts Saudi Arabia. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Saudi Arabia do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Saudi Arabia” refers to the terrestrial territory of Saudi Arabia, including its internal waters. Saudi Arabia’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Saudi Arabia as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government and military of Saudi Arabia and the Houthis and a consensus of credible reporting.
4 more markets, none above 7.5%.
| frozenriver |
| Yes |
| 25.5 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 23.75 |
| LovelyPanda | No | 21 |
| Keen Sphinx FC18 | Yes | 20 |
| a5533 | Yes | 20 |
| tradeo39 | Yes | 20 |
| deuxgaules | No | 19.79 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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