Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 3.6% on 27 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 36 daily closes on record from 27 Aug 2026 to 1 Oct 2026, the highest close was 4% on 8 Sep 2026 and the lowest 0.3% on 29 Sep 2026. $1.34K traded over the market's life.
14 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 2, 2:25 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 36 points, 27 Aug 2026 – 1 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Aug 2026 | 3.6% |
| 1 Oct 2026 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| 74744886D1081ab236510E04c5b617b914A3Cef7. | Yes | 150 |
| Attached-Prairie | Yes | 100 |
| bigdickxijinping | Yes | 99.52 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/hormuz-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-byptptpt-20260720014603391
| Potpuri | Yes | 99.23 |
| jfkjdfj3 | Yes | 20 |
| Ethical-Bamboo | Yes | 14 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 10 |
| Sis123 | No | 5.6 |
| Celebrated-Howard | Yes | 5.1 |
| triklozoid | Yes | 5 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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