Analytics
Yes is at 0.4%, down 28 points from 28% when the market opened on 1 Oct 2026.
Across the 24 daily closes on record from 1 Oct 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 28% on 1 Oct 2026 and the lowest 0.2% on 23 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 1.1%. Its largest one-day move was 26 points down, to 1.6% on 2 Oct 2026.
$6.41K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $25.52K, with a 0.2% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 24 trades, $31.27 bought Yes and $1.33K bought No.
The largest Yes position is BornAgain26 with 1,000 shares; the largest No position is MrNoItAll with 1.9K. Ten wallets hold 96.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 4 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 12:06 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 24 points, 1 Oct 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Oct 2026 | 28.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 0.4% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| MrNoItAll | No | 1.9K |
| BornAgain26 | Yes | 999.99 |
| heypresto | Yes | 730.01 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/hormuz-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-byptptpt-20260720014603391
| Deafening-Possible |
| Yes |
| 150 |
| W9iq27 | Yes | 111 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 90.63 |
| overgame | No | 81.72 |
| tetrase | No | 70.63 |
| manochartino | Yes | 61.07 |
| meiyao | No | 30.27 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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