Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Oct 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 11% on 10 Sep 2025. Before it settled, the high was 11% on 10 Sep 2025 and the low 0.5% on 1 Oct 2025. $43.33K traded over the market's life.
21 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 2, 8:36 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 22 points, 10 Sep 2025 – 1 Oct 2025, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Sep 2025 | 11.0% |
| 1 Oct 2025 | 0.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| 2117 | Yes | 1K |
| LordOfTheBums | Yes | 200 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 120.99 |
| exothetajunkie | Yes | 100 |
| Insight0 | Yes | 90.91 |
| zeek | Yes | 54.55 |
| George3d6 | Yes | 43.53 |
| liumusix | Yes | 27.27 |
| 11OH | Yes | 22.11 |
| Deafening-Possible | Yes | 14 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory between September 9, 3:00 PM ET, and September 15, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control. Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of September 9, 2025. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution—regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/hezbollah-strike-on-israel-by
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