Analytics
Yes is at 11.3%, up 6.3 points from 5% when the market opened on 9 Sep 2026.
Across the 46 daily closes on record from 9 Sep 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 48.9% on 24 Sep 2026 and the lowest 5% on 9 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 10.4%; a month before, 35.6%. Its largest one-day move was 33 points up, to 43.7% on 22 Sep 2026.
$4.8K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $394.61, with a 17.4% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 95 trades, $410.65 bought Yes and $1.03K bought No.
The largest Yes position is vghjkvgjkvgjk with 889 shares; the largest No position is Hans323 with 911. Ten wallets hold 93.8% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 66 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 4:02 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 46 points, 9 Sep 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 Sep 2026 | 5.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 11.3% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Hans323 | No | 911.25 |
| vghjkvgjkvgjk | Yes | 889.3 |
| Violet Maven 063C | No | 356.53 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hasan Piker is arrested or detained by law enforcement between September 6 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge's decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/hasan-piker-arrested-in-2026
| xtxpleasecallme |
| Yes |
| 240.53 |
| PowerPicker | No | 159.99 |
| aniceguy | Yes | 101.43 |
| FrankyFourFingers | No | 100 |
| jeanuouo | Yes | 95.27 |
| totonnyy | Yes | 72.36 |
| New-Camel | Yes | 64.56 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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