Analytics
Resolved Yes on 4 Sep 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.9%. Yes opened at 50% on 1 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 35 daily closes on record from 1 Aug 2026 to 4 Sep 2026, the highest close was 99.9% on 4 Sep 2026 and the lowest 40.5% on 4 Aug 2026. Its largest one-day move was 58 points up, to 99.9% on 4 Sep 2026. $4.6K traded over the market's life.
15 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 5, 12:18 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 35 points, 1 Aug 2026 – 4 Sep 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Aug 2026 | 50.0% |
| 4 Sep 2026 | 99.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| HappyGamma | No | 250 |
| .Menthe | No | 50 |
| Better-Browsing | No | 50 |
| menthe2 | No | 50 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Grok (Web) experiences an incident labeled “outage” on the official xAI Grok (Web) status page between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Only incidents listed under Grok (Web) will be considered. Incidents affecting Grok in X, Grok (iOS), Grok (Android), or similar but not Grok (Web), will not qualify. Incidents labeled “disruption” or “info” will not qualify. An incident’s status while it remains ongoing will not determine the market’s resolution; only incidents marked “Resolved” will be considered. An incident which is marked "Resolved" outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at the end of the listed calendar date (ET), in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked “Resolved,” and resolution of this market will be based on the incident classification displayed immediately after it is marked "Resolved." The primary resolution source for this market will be the official xAI Grok (Web) status page at https://status.x.ai/grok-com. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until it comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/grok-web-outage-byptptpt-20260728191439450
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | No | 40 |
| PPMT | No | 30 |
| asfui8j9 | No | 20 |
| jetfuel69 | No | 17.24 |
| xixihaha009 | No | 14 |
| TENETENET | No | 10 |
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