Analytics
Yes is at 46%, down 4.5 points from 50.5% when the market opened on 9 Oct 2026.
Across the 17 daily closes on record from 9 Oct 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 61.5% on 18 Oct 2026 and the lowest 37.5% on 11 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 50%. Its largest one-day move was 17 points down, to 44.5% on 19 Oct 2026.
It is one of 2 markets under “Grok (Web) Outage by...?”.
$2.04K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $858.79, with a 32.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 61 trades, $503.32 bought Yes and $269.35 bought No.
The largest Yes position is CalculatedRisk08 with 140 shares; the largest No position is xtxpleasecallme with 132.
Trading closes on 1 Dec 2026, 34 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 6:00 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 17 points, 9 Oct 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 30%–70%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 Oct 2026 | 50.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 45.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| CalculatedRisk08 | Yes | 139.62 |
| xtxpleasecallme | No | 132.2 |
| 2B9S | No | 30.36 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Grok (Web) experiences an incident labeled “outage” on the official xAI Grok (Web) status page between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Only incidents listed under Grok (Web) will be considered. Incidents affecting Grok in X, Grok (iOS), Grok (Android), or similar but not Grok (Web), will not qualify. Incidents labeled “disruption” or “info” will not qualify. An incident’s status while it remains ongoing will not determine the market’s resolution; only incidents marked “Resolved” will be considered. An incident which is marked "Resolved" outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at the end of the listed calendar date (ET), in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked “Resolved,” and resolution of this market will be based on the incident classification displayed immediately after it is marked "Resolved." The primary resolution source for this market will be the official xAI Grok (Web) status page at https://status.x.ai/grok-com. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until it comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/grok-web-outage-byptptpt-20261008
| daloji |
| No |
| 17.22 |
| GuyFromTinder | Yes | 15.1 |
| 29EDa18df836aD93a8c285F97873bBE26118A8da. | Yes | 14.06 |
| cigarettes | Yes | 10 |
| winexecutescale | Yes | 6 |
| Golden Kestrel D399 | No | 5 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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