Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 79.5% on 31 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 137 daily closes on record from 31 Jan 2026 to 1 Jul 2026 (15 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 86.5% on 15 Feb 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 29 Jun 2026. Its largest one-day move was 16 points up, to 86.5% on 15 Feb 2026. $66.33K traded over the market's life.
86 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 2, 12:15 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 137 points, 31 Jan 2026 – 1 Jul 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 31 Jan 2026 | 79.5% |
| 1 Jul 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| DonAntimatter | Yes | 999.95 |
| Wrathful-Press | Yes | 911.76 |
| Prickly-Rocket | Yes | 862.07 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Grok 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public. Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5 (e.g. Grok 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Grok 4 similar to the progression from Grok 2 to Grok 3. Products labeled as Grok 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/grok-5-released-by
| Yes |
| 750 |
| GUINESS123 | Yes | 736 |
| eNakeVets | Yes | 500 |
| Dndiwonrfksoekrjwp | Yes | 413.65 |
| phantomlbx | Yes | 384.25 |
| robrabby | Yes | 331.71 |
| peepeepooppoop | Yes | 326.73 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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