Analytics
Resolved No on 16 Jun 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 50% on 23 May 2026. Before it settled, across the 25 daily closes on record from 23 May 2026 to 16 Jun 2026, the highest close was 50% on 23 May 2026 and the lowest 0.3% on 16 Jun 2026. Its largest one-day move was 22 points down, to 27.5% on 24 May 2026. $7.39K traded over the market's life.
13 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jun 17, 2:12 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 25 points, 23 May 2026 – 16 Jun 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 May 2026 | 50.0% |
| 16 Jun 2026 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| dzP3 | Yes | 1.14K |
| 72929292 | Yes | 715.97 |
| Contentious-Dinnerdate | Yes | 300 |
| Shameless-Millisecond | Yes | 117.83 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market). Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify. For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/grok-4pt4-released-by
| Oklmntrader | Yes | 61.2 |
| Lavincey | Yes | 59 |
| .Menthe | Yes | 50 |
| PPMT | Yes | 35.27 |
| tryingtobest | Yes | 25 |
| wwder | Yes | 10 |
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