Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 10% on 8 Aug 2025. Before it settled, across the 148 daily closes on record from 8 Aug 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 10% on 8 Aug 2025 and the lowest 0.3% on 1 Jan 2026. $25.81K traded over the market's life.
39 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:33 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 148 points, 8 Aug 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Aug 2025 | 10.0% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| ThePureGenius | Yes | 1.16K |
| tutunuru | Yes | 897.67 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 485 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if GPT-5 achieves a score of 70% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered. The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/gpt-5-scores-70-on-frontiermath-benchmark-by-december
| Yes |
| 248.99 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 170 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 130 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 129 |
| nasos.pap | Yes | 113.33 |
| Crimson Falcon C79A | Yes | 109.96 |
| kuranes90 | Yes | 100 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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