Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 5.5% on 16 Jul 2025. Before it settled, the high was 18% on 27 Jul 2025 and the low 0.1% on 29 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 6 points up, to 13% on 23 Jul 2025. $150.62K traded over the market's life.
79 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:31 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 171 points · 16 Jul 2025 – 1 Jan 2026 · axis zoomed to 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 16 Jul 2025 | 5.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Nancy-Pelosi | Yes | 6K |
| BryanMicon | Yes | 1.3K |
| Newshound | Yes | 1.21K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell is released from custody by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Maxwell is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Maxwell is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Maxwell to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ghislaine-maxwell-released-from-custody-in-2025
| Yes |
| 999.96 |
| roundtripgod | Yes | 642.26 |
| macdadyys | Yes | 560.62 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 533 |
| IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII | Yes | 500 |
| W]$_u45HU6^ | Yes | 428.56 |
| Spectrum | Yes | 427.24 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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