Gaza mass population relocation in 2025?

Resolved

No, settled Jan 1, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$928.0K

Resolved

Settled

Jan 1, 2026 UTC

Topic roomIran–Israel

Where it stands

Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 17% on 11 Feb 2025. Before it settled, across the 326 daily closes on record from 11 Feb 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 20.5% on 13 Feb 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 29 Dec 2025. $928K traded over the market's life.

223 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:31 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 326 points, 11 Feb 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–25%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
11 Feb 2025	17.0%
1 Jan 2026	0.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
markdubmogulmoves	Yes	6.3K
E33IE	Yes	3.84K
motionz	Yes	2.47K

Rules

How this market was settled

On February 4, Donald Trump floated a plan for the reconstruction of Gaza including the relocation of Gaza’s population (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-netanyahu-set-pivotal-talks-middle-east-agenda-2025-02-04/) This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least 500,000 Gazans leave the Gaza strip between February 6, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes the transfer of Gazans to Israel, the West Bank or other countries, as well as the departure of Gazans from the Gaza Strip through visa or refugee programs. This market refers to the total number of Gazans who leave, regardless of method. Announcements of relocation plans will not count, only actual relocation will qualify. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.