Analytics
Yes is at 8%, down 1.5 points from 9.5% when the market opened on 23 Oct 2026.
Across the 7 daily closes on record from 23 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 14.5% on 24 Oct 2026 and the lowest 7% on 30 Oct 2026.
$50 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $30.86K since listing. The order book holds $11.96K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 456 trades, $1.65K bought Yes and $8.12K bought No.
The largest Yes position is DontTrustMe with 2.5K shares; the largest No position is vinii with 1.7K. Ten wallets hold 66.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Dec 2026, 32 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 5:25 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 7 points, 23 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 5%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Oct 2026 | 9.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 8.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| DontTrustMe | Yes | 2.5K |
| Devoted-Route | Yes | 2.12K |
| vinii | No | 1.74K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the French government explicitly claims that the authorities of a foreign country deliberately caused or facilitated the unrest that began in France on October 17, 2026, by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Such a claim requires an on-the-record public statement issued by an authorized person or entity representing the French government, speaking in an official capacity, which expressly states that the authorities of a foreign country deliberately caused or facilitated the unrest. A statement from a lawmaker speaking in their own capacity or on behalf of a party not in government will not alone qualify. Ambiguous statements which imply responsibility but which do not directly claim it will not qualify. Statements that do not attribute deliberate intent to the authorities of a foreign country (e.g., "foreign actors exploited the unrest to spread disinformation") will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the French government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/france-accuses-foreign-country-of-provoking-unrest-by-november-30-20261021154154939
| GOLADS96 |
| No |
| 1.12K |
| theta-thunberg | No | 1.05K |
| DegenerateJanet | No | 1.03K |
| lissartter | Yes | 568.31 |
| revol | Yes | 500 |
| Jest55 | No | 431.44 |
| frozenriver | No | 395 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
