Analytics
Resolved No on 4 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 74% on 19 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 47 daily closes on record from 19 Aug 2026 to 4 Oct 2026, the highest close was 94.5% on 1 Oct 2026 and the lowest 0.5% on 4 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 80 points down, to 14.8% on 2 Oct 2026. $72.5K traded over the market's life.
42 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 5, 2:57 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 47 points, 19 Aug 2026 – 4 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 Aug 2026 | 74.0% |
| 4 Oct 2026 | 0.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| MissaoComFlavio | Yes | 10.17K |
| Votei14Voude22 | Yes | 8.26K |
| LulaVaiPerder | Yes | 4.2K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Flávio Bolsonaro participates in a televised Brazilian presidential debate by October 3, 2026, 11:59 PM Brasilia time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. To qualify, Flávio Bolsonaro must speak at least once in a debate with at least one other registered Brazilian presidential candidate present, televised live. Virtual live participation will qualify. Prerecorded appearances will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be footage of the debate, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/flavio-bolsonaro-participates-in-debate-before-first-round
New to prediction markets?
Start here: the 25 October runoff, the polls, the Polymarket odds and the results, in one guide.
Why a candidate's poll share and market price measure different things, and how to read them side by side.
When the count begins on 25 October, and where the electoral court publishes the official results.
| Yes |
| 1.87K |
| gonzinho | Yes | 1K |
| marchonnow | Yes | 565.76 |
| Sadoshi | Yes | 501.16 |
| Prinas | Yes | 319.41 |
| burityps | Yes | 223.19 |
| wulalalala | Yes | 199.99 |
